Who are the winners and losers in the Ukraine crisis?

Three countries benefited from the Russo-Ukrainian war, while three Asian countries lost money as oil prices continued to rise, affecting basic commodities such as fuel and food.

While China has become an ally of Russia and signed 31 documents with Russia to strengthen the economic and military partnership between the two sides and support Moscow in the face of US expansion in Europe and Asia, it has taken advantage of Ukraine. The war opened avenues for negotiation with the United States.
In a bid to reap greater gains at the same time, Beijing has pledged to continue normal trade relations with Russia and is considering buying stakes in Russian energy and commodity companies such as Gazprom and Rusal for aluminum production, according to Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg, Beijing is “in talks with state-owned companies including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec Group Corporation and the Aluminum Corporation of China about any potential opportunities to invest in Russian companies or assets. Chinese and Russian energy companies have already held negotiations under terms Strict as secrecy also began.” That wouldn’t necessarily lead to a deal. ”

Germany’s historic achievement

Germany is also benefiting from the Ukraine war, setting aside all contentious issues the new coalition government would face, as well as disagreements between Chancellor and Socialist leader Olaf Schulz and his leaders over Russia. Analysts say Annalina Birbock, Russia’s foreign minister and leader of the Green Party, has emerged as a model. Moscow and Vladimir Putin.

As a historic harvest of the war, the German government announced the creation of a special fund of 100 billion euros to invest in the German army, increase the annual defense budget to 2% of GDP, and make full use of the army and its equipment.

According to German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, this war threatens Germany as much as any other European country, and it is necessary that everyone prepare for the worst, or for the first wars that the Russians are talking about, prepare for three world wars.

“Billions of euros will be invested in the German army, which will make it the most powerful in Europe to protect our allies,” Lindner added.
Stick to Gazprom

The German chancellor insisted on importing energy from Russia despite Western sanctions on Rosneft and the Nord Stream pipeline between Berlin and Moscow.

Schultz asserted that Europe deliberately excluded Russian energy supplies from the sanctions; Because that would “seriously affect the economies of European countries.”

“The energy supply for heating, transport, electricity and industry in Europe cannot be guaranteed in any other way,” Schultz said in a statement on Tuesday.

Political analyst Nabil Rashwan believes that preventing Russian gas from reaching Germany will be a major challenge for Berlin.

“German gas reserves have reached a very small percentage in the world, estimated at 30% of their consumption, which makes them cling to Russian gas”, until other alternatives are found.

He pointed out that Russian gas divides Europe because it imports 40% of its gas needs from Russia, and there are countries that do not support the embargo to deprive Moscow of basic income, as those countries are likely to be affected as well.
He added that the real gain for Germany now is the adoption of a budget to modernize its army, noting that “the German army is shrinking and suffering from a lack of equipment since the end of the Cold War.”

win turkey

Turkey is one of the countries that could benefit from the Ukrainian war because it is a member of NATO that provides military support to Kiev and has good relations with Russia.

According to observers, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not miss an opportunity for reconciliation with the United States on the one hand, and his differences with Russia on the other, at least in this case with Syria.

Despite the sale of Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine, which benefited the Russian army, Turkey insisted on buying Russian oil and importing 70% of its wheat from Russia.

Turkish Energy Minister Erb Arslan Pelacer announced on Tuesday that Ankara will continue to buy Russian oil and hopes to lift sanctions against Iran, which will bring in more supplies to meet global energy demand.

Bayraktar added during the “Cerawick Energy” conference, according to Turkey, that Turkey depends on Russia for 45% of its natural gas needs, 17% of its oil needs, and 40% of its gasoline needs.

Regarding Turkey’s position on the Ukrainian crisis, political analyst Mehmet Hamid said: “Erdogan has maintained good relations with both Russia and Ukraine for many years, and he cannot take sides with one of the two countries now, because it will affect Turkey’s security and Ukraine’s economic consequences.” Ankara. “.

Hamid said, “Russia cannot replace Ankara’s relationship with the West, and the West cannot replace Turkey’s relationship with Russia. While Turkey supplies Ukraine with drones, it buys S-400 missile defense system.” From Russia, despite being a member of NATO.

Ukraine war victims

According to a report by Japanese financial services group Nomura Holdings, some analysts believe that due to the Russo-Ukrainian war, three countries in Asia will pay a heavy price: India, the Philippines and Thailand, which will suffer the most in Asia. As oil prices continue to rise.

The report highlights that the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war in Asia will greatly affect commodities, especially fuel and food.

Higher oil prices will also lead to higher inflation rates and higher transportation and utilities costs.

Excessive dependence on oil imports is likely to widen the current account deficit and hurt the currencies of the three countries.

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